The photolithography machine market is currently in a stage of rapid development, mainly driven by the semiconductor industry. With the rise of emerging technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, the demand for semiconductor chips continues to increase, thereby driving the growth of the photolithography machine market. At the same time, as chip processes become more refined, the performance and precision requirements for photolithography machines are also continuously increasing, bringing more development opportunities to the market. In addition, with the development of new energy, new materials, and other industries, the application of photolithography machines in other fields is also gradually expanding. However, the photolithography machine market also faces fierce competition and the challenge of technological updates and replacements, requiring continuous innovation and improvement of technical levels to meet market demands.
On Tuesday (October 15) in the United States, ASML, a Dutch photolithography machine company that released its financial report that day, saw its performance "explode like a bomb," with its stock price plummeting by 16.26%, the largest single-day drop since June 12, 1998 (26 years), and trading was temporarily suspended due to the excessive drop. It also dragged down other chip stocks, with the stock prices of Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom all falling by about 4%.
In terms of news, ASML's third-quarter financial report, which was originally scheduled to be released on October 16 (Wednesday), was unexpectedly published online in advance and then removed by the company, but it had already been captured by third-party websites. The data shows that the company's third-quarter order amount was only 2.6 billion euros, while analysts generally expected 5.39 billion euros, only half of the expected amount, while also lowering next year's sales targets and gross margin guidance.
The data shows that ASML's net sales in the third quarter were 7.47 billion euros, with market expectations of 7.17 billion euros; the order amount in the third quarter was 2.63 billion euros, significantly lower than the market expectation of 5.39 billion euros; the gross margin in the third quarter was 50.8%, with market expectations of 50.7%. In addition, ASML expects net sales in the fourth quarter to be between 8.8 billion and 9.2 billion euros, with market expectations of 8.95 billion euros. The expected annual net sales are 28 billion euros, with market expectations of 27.71 billion euros.
ASML CFO Roger Dassen said that the company expects the total net sales to grow to between 30 billion and 35 billion euros by 2025 (previous guidance was 30-40 billion euros), with a gross margin between 51% and 53%, while the previous expected range was 54% to 56%, mainly due to the delayed delivery time of its high-end extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement: "Now it seems that the recovery speed is slower than previously expected. It is expected that this situation will continue until 2025, leading to more cautious customers. Although artificial intelligence continues to maintain strong development momentum and has upward potential, other market segments will take longer to recover."
At present, only the Dutch ASML company can produce EUV lithography machines. The company joined the EUVLLC cutting-edge technology organization led by Intel and the US Department of Energy in 1997, and the research results enjoyed by EUVLLC greatly accelerated ASML's EUV research and development speed; in 2010, the company delivered the first prototype of an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool (NXE: 3100) to a research institution of an Asian chip manufacturer, marking the beginning of a new era of lithography; in 2020, the company's EUV lithography machines entered mass production, also becoming the only company in the world capable of mass-producing EUV lithography machines.
Looking at the sales situation of ASML-EUV lithography machines, from 2015 to 2020, the sales volume of EUV lithography machines increased from 1 unit to 31 units, and sales also grew from 0.07 billion euros to 4.464 billion euros, showing a rapid growth trend. In the first half of 2021, according to the company's second-quarter performance information, the company has sold 16 EUV lithography machines, with a total value of 2.456 billion euros.
Looking at the sales proportion of different lithography machines, in 2020, the sales proportion of EUV lithography machines reached 43%, becoming the company's top-selling product.
Regarding the future development direction of EUV lithography machines, ASML is currently exploring the advancement from 0.33 to 0.55, and it is expected that the first batch of High-NA equipment (0.55NA) will be delivered in the second half of 2022.
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